The French economy should rebound 16{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} in the third quarter, estimates the Bank of France. Its governor stresses that household confidence will be decisive in accelerating the recovery.
Due to the pandemic, the French economy recorded the most violent plunge since the Second World War between April and June, but it should rebound by 16{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} in the third quarter, estimates the Bank of France, in its new forecasts published on Monday. September 14. François Villeroy de Galhau, its governor , considers the government’s recovery plan balanced and welcome to support business investment. After the emergency phase, he nevertheless calls for being more selective in rebuilding the economy.
After the unprecedented shock of the first half of the year, where are we in the recovery?
According to our monthly economic survey, among thousands of companies, the recovery is going a little better than expected. At the end of August, the average loss of activity observed was – 5{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} compared to normal, a little above the expectations of company heads, against – 9{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} at the end of June and – 7{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} at the end of July . Three sectors in particular were better oriented than expected: the automobile sector, which has improved significantly, accommodation and food services – admittedly at a still low level – and construction. This sector is at 100{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} of normal in August, with a number of players even above the pre-crisis level of activity.
What are your forecasts for the end of the year?
Expectations of business leaders for September are approximately at the same level as in August, which leads us to make a growth forecast for the third quarter of + 16{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0}: this is a strong rebound by compared to the second quarter when the drop in GDP was -13.8{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0}. For 2020 as a whole, the recession would therefore be -8.7{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0}, an improvement over the forecast of -10.3{dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} we made in June. The first rapid recovery will then be more gradual, according to a “bird’s wing” profile.Read also François Villeroy de Galhau: “We must restore the confidence of households and businesses”
Pour 2021, nous prévoyons + 7,4 {dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0}, un peu au-dessus d’il y a trois mois, puis un ralentissement à + 3 {dff699dfc651230ccd60eb94650bc8224592a05498fc8fbce90d7bd63ee6ffd0} en 2022. Nous devrions retrouver en moyenne le niveau d’activité pré-Covid au premier trimestre 2022. Au mois de juin nous tablions plutôt sur mi-2022 : on gagne donc un à deux trimestres sur le rythme de la reprise, et la France rejoindrait le niveau pré-Covid un peu avant la moyenne européenne. Notre économie avait plongé davantage que la moyenne pendant le confinement, et remonte plus fort aujourd’hui : mais il reste naturellement beaucoup d’incertitudes devant nous.